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GOOD Morning Britain’s Dr Hilary Jones has warned a second wave of the coronavirus is “inevitable”.

The show’s resident doctor said the UK didn’t take the pandemic seriously enough and that most people “carried on living normally”.

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5Leicester is being kept in lockdown for another two weeks

His comments come as Leicester has been forced to go into a localised lockdown due to a rise in cases.

The area will remain under the current lockdown measures for two more weeks.

Pubs and restaurants are to open up across the rest of England, but in Leicester they will remain closed with all non-essential shops also closing.

The measures have been implemented due to the fact that 866 people have tested positive for the virus in the last two weeks.

5Dr Hilary Jones this morning warned that the UK would face a second wave of the virusCredit: ITV

The equates to almost a third of the city's cases since the epidemic started.

Leicester accounts for 10 per cent of all positive cases reported across the country over the last week. The area currently has 135 cases per 100,000 people.

This morning Dr Hilary said the UK had been “too complacent” about the virus at the beginning of the pandemic.

Speaking on the show today he said even though we had witnessed viruses like MERS and SARS, none of them had “touched the UK in a significant way”.

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“So we were very complacent about this, we saw it beginning to happen in Europe, we thought ‘no it's not going to come to these shores'.

“We didn’t take it seriously enough, people carried on living normally and suddenly we had this upsurge in cases, we had many deaths, we have now had over 70,000 excess deaths and people realised that it was very serious.

“Already people are talking about getting back to normal and we haven’t really got through the first wave let alone worrying about the second wave which is inevitable now and we are beginning to see signs of that already.”

This morning Leicester’s mayor said the area would need more help now due to the localised lockdown.

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Sir Peter Soulsby said the city will now need to be treated differently to others.

Dr Hilary also this morning highlighted other places that had managed to keep the rate of infection down.

He praised New Zealand and said they had “done well in having zero cases” apart from the two cases that had been recorded from people who had come into the country from the UK.

“They are stopping people from flying in until next March, that’s how seriously they are taking it, and here we are opening up everything”, he added.

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So far in the UK over 43,000 people have died in hospitals due to the virus and Dr Hilary said people should think twice before jetting off abroad as air travel was “how this started”.

Dr Hilary’s comments on a second wave come after the World Health Organisation yesterday said that the “worst is yet to come ''.

During a briefing WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said: "We all want this to be over. We all want to get on with our lives. But the hard reality is this is not even close to being over.

"Although many countries have made some progress, globally the pandemic is actually speeding up."

Laws will be changed to enforce Leicester lockdown and cops will crack down, warns Matt Hancock
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Heat wave forecast to bake most of U.S.

A sweltering summer heatwave will grip an unusually vast swath of the nation this week.   

270 million people — that's 84% of the continental U.S. population — will see highs above 90 degrees at least one day this week, and for most, it will be multiple days. At one time or another, about 150 million people will sweat through heat index numbers over 100 degrees.

While the heat wave will be expansive, it will not be very intense — at least at the beginning of the week. However, as the week wears on, the heat dome will recenter and intensify, bringing widespread heat index numbers of 105 to 115.

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For the first half of the week, the core of the heat will be centered over the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic, with high temperatures in the low to mid 90s for cities like Detroit, Indianapolis and Washington D.C. When you factor in the humidity, feels like temperatures will top out near 100. The daytime heat will certainly be high, but not many records will fall. This will last through at least Friday.

Meanwhile, the western extent of this heat wave — over the lower plain states and lower Mississippi Valley — will become dominant and build later in the week into the weekend. Although it's still several days away, in these areas, the heatwave may become quite severe.

Interesting evolution to the heat wave this week. Initially the heat core is over the Great Lakes, but then a subtropical high builds west and north merging with building heat dome over the Deep SW/ Lower Plains late week-weekend. Get ready for intense heat nation's middle!! pic.twitter.com/AJ4iDqSpwl

— Jeff Berardelli (@WeatherProf) July 5, 2020

By Thursday afternoon, heat index values will begin to top out around 105 from Kansas southward to Texas and east through Missouri, Arkansas and Louisiana. And it will only get more intense from there.

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On Saturday, heat index values across Oklahoma City, Dallas and Little Rock may approach 100-115 degrees. 

Widespread 105 -115 heat index numbers seem likely esp. in OK, TX, AR. There's some disagreement in the models on how expansive and how intense the plains and MS Valley #heatwave will be later this week and into the weekend. pic.twitter.com/8VDZ7USdyt

— Jeff Berardelli (@WeatherProf) July 5, 2020

This intensity of oppressive heat may last a full week, or even longer. The National Weather Service points to a long-lasting hot and dry spell across much of the nation for the next  8 to 14 days — especially across the Southwest and Plains States. 

NOAA

A study published just a few days ago in Nature Communications shows that, since 1950, heatwaves globally are getting significantly more frequent, lasting longer and producing more cumulative heat — making populations more vulnerable to heat stress. 

The figure below shows that the rate of both heat wave days and duration of heat waves, in most regions, is accelerating. The abbreviations on the right stand for different regions like CNA (Central North America), MED (Mediterranean) and Wor (the World).

S. E. Perkins-Kirkpatrick and S. C. Lewis 2020

The maps above show the differing trends in each region. The left map indicates that the amount of heat on a given heat wave day (a day in which the temperature exceeds the heat wave threshold) is increasing all across the globe, generally by around 2+ degrees Celsius (4 degrees Fahrenheit) in the mid and high latitudes. The map on the right shows the trend per decade, which is rising in most areas, except, ironically, in Central North America. 

The reasons for the lack of heat wave trend in the Central U.S. is not completely understood, but it is surmised that changes in the jet stream and the cooling impact of increased rainfall explains some of it. In addition, heat during the Dust Bowl years of the 1930s was so intense — due partially to detrimental land use — it has yet to be eclipsed, even with human-caused climate change. 

While these factors have led to little overall heat trends for the central U.S. so far, research indicates that the severe heat waves that helped power the Dust Bowl are now more than twice as likely. In fact, the upcoming heatwave late this week into this weekend will be centered in the Dust Bowl regions of the western lower Plains.     

This is an area that already faces a significant rainfall deficit. Over the past three months, the area has seen less than half of the normal amount of rain, and some locations are in the midst of their driest stretch on record.

It's been a very dry stretch in the western Plains and SW US. And even more hot and dry weather = with a big heat dome - is expected as we head into the end of this week and weekend. pic.twitter.com/x6FycO494f

— Meteorologists United on Climate Change (@MetsUnite) July 5, 2020

Because of the arched ground in Arizona, three of the state's largest fires in modern history are currently burning simultaneously. The lack of rainfall has resulted in a large area of "extreme" drought, with some pockets exceeding "exceptional" threshold.

#heatdome will be the story in a few days. see circle. Here we see the #DroughtMonitor report showing an already troubling trend ahead of the heat. #ActOnClimate pic.twitter.com/LF0JQsGY5y

— Channing Dutton (@channingdutton) July 3, 2020

With an intense heat dome overhead, no significant rainfall is in the forecast. Over the next ten days, much of the drought-stricken area is not expected to receive more than a quarter of an inch of rain.

In the bigger picture, this is all part of a much longer term drought in the American West, lasting for the past twenty years. In fact, in a recent study, researchers found that the area has now entered into one of its worst Megadroughts in the past 1200 years. 

The researchers say rising temperatures and increased evaporation due to human-caused climate change are responsible for about half the pace and severity of the current drought. Since regional temperatures in the West are projected to keep rising, this trend is likely to continue.

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