Jun 30, 2020
GRAPHIC-Is UK heading to no-trade-deal Brexit? Banks assess risk
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By Elizabeth Howcroft
LONDON, June 30 (Reuters) – Britain and the European Union remain far apart in negotiations on a new trading relationship and analysts at many banks say the risk of a no-trade-deal Brexit at the end of the year is firmly back on the table.
Talks are being held this week in Brussels but Britain’s refusal to extend the end-2020 deadline has increased pressure to reach a deal by then or be cast adrift without any trading arrangements in place.
“We think there is a 50-50 chance of a no trade-deal Brexit,” said Sarah Hewin, chief Europe economist at Standard Chartered.
“There are big hurdles still and no one is really talking about Northern Ireland at the moment,” she said, referring to one of the main stumbling blocks in past negotiation rounds.
Berenberg analysts put a 60% chance on a deal not being reached in time, but expect a transition to World Trade Organization (WTO) rules via small steps, with only a 5% probability of a disorderly outcome.
Click for interactive chart https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/editorcharts/gjnvwwagjvw/index.html.
Commerzbank sees a 20% chance of the transition period being extended beyond year-end despite the government’s insistence this will not happen. But while assigning only a 10% chance of Britain leaving without an agreement in place, they think any deal will be “weak with very limited reach”.
JPMorgan too predict a deal will be reached but only after the current deadline.
ING economist James Smith sees a 40% probability of a no- deal Brexit – twice as likely as a year ago — but sees little difference between having a free trade agreement and exiting without one.
“In either scenario the UK is leaving the EU single market and that is where the bulk of the new costs for businesses will come from,” Smith added.
Societe Generale FX strategist Kit Juckes assigns a 16.7% probability to a no-trade-deal outcome but sees the UK heading for a bare-bones agreement, adding to strains on the economy.
“If the global economy does badly and we do a bad trade deal we will do worse than most,” he added.
(Reporting by Elizabeth Howcroft; additional reporting by Olga Cotaga Editing by Gareth Jones)
News Source: newsbrig.com
Newcastle star Allan Saint-Maximin ‘growing frustrated’ over £36k-a-week wages but Bruce insists he is staying put
STEVE BRUCE reckons Allan Saint Maximin is the buy of the season – and insists there is “no chance” of him leaving.
With question marks over his attitude, the Magpies snapped up the French winger for £17million from Nice last summer.2Allan Saint-Maximin is growing frustrated with his Newcastle wages
While his tricks have bedazzled the Toon Army from the off, an end-product did not always follow.
It emerged yesterday the maverick wideman trains with his DOG, has an IQ of 145 and was expelled from school age 12, according to the Mail.
But having previously struggled with off-field problems, Saint-Maximin returned from lockdown a player reborn, picking up a hat-trick of assists in the 4-1 thrashing of Bournemouth.
And that form has seen him nominated for the player of the month.
However, such is his improvent this season, he is said to be frustrated at earning just £36k-a-week plus bonuses - far less than many who rarely play.
But asked if Newcastle might cash in this summer, Bruce snapped back: “No chance!
“When you look at the money we bought him for, he is arguably the best pound for pound signing – show me another who is better.
“With what he has produced, we have probably got the buy of the season.”
After dispatching the Cherries, the Newcastle boss said the 23-year-old can be hard to manage.
And Bruce – himself up for the manager of the month award - admitted he has lost his temper at Saint-Maximin a few times.
He added: “There have been one or two moments but he needs to be reminded of that now and again.
“When you get yourself a bit of a reputation, which Allan seemed to have, then of course it's going to test your managerial skills.
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“But he’s got a great enthusiasm for the game and, for me, that outweighs anything else.”
Team news for West Ham game: Sean Longstaff is a doubt after limping off against Bournemouth, while Bruce will leave it late to decide on Joelinton and skipper Jamaal Lascelles, who both have niggles.
Likely line-up (4-2-3-1): Dubravka; Manquillo, Lascelles, Fernandez, Rose; Shelvey, Hayden; Lazaro, Almiron, Saint-Maximin; Gayle.2Steve Bruce says there is no chance of Saint-Maximin leaving NewcastleCredit: PA:Press Association VAR football control experts show how the virtual offside line is placed on the field of play