Jun 30, 2020
Trump’s red wall is beginning to crumble
This news has been received from: alternet.org
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Nicole Galloway, the State Auditor of Missouri, is running for governor. She hired the Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group to poll her race and they tested the Biden-Trump contest as part of their survey. In the business, this is called a “partisan poll” because it’s paid for by a candidate. One advantage to a partisan poll is that a candidate is not compelled to release the data if they don’t like the results.Some polling outfits are not above producing the results their clients wants to see, and a good (even if dishonest) poll can give a struggling campaign some juice and help them attract volunteers, raise money, and get free media attention. For these reasons, you should always be skeptical of partisan polls, especially when they produce startling headlines.
The Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group survey isn’t particularly great news for Auditor Galloway. She has a 40 percent to 47 percent deficit against incumbent Republican governor Mike Parsons. The pollsters helpfully characterize this as “closing the gap” and state that Parson’s lead has been”slashed in half over the past seventeen months.”
FiveThirtyEight gives the Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group a middling B/C grade and says they have a D+1.3 mean-reverted bias. By contrast, the Trafalgar Group that does polling for Trump receives a C- rating and a R+0.9 mean-reverted bias. The best way to interpret this is that the Galloway poll is likely to be too optimistic for the Democrats.
So, with that caveat in mind, the survey found that Joe Biden is leading Donald Trump in Missouri by a 47 percent to 45 percent margin. The pollsters insist this “is consistent with national polls showing a double-digit Biden lead and state polls showing Biden ahead in other states Donald Trump won in 2016.” But it’s really not consistent with that. Trump won Missouri in 2016 by a thunderous 56.4 percent to 37.9 percent margin. Polls showing Biden outperforming Clinton by eight-to-ten points nationally and in key battleground states would not support a swing of this magnitude in Missouri. But, when we take the pro-Democratic bias of the pollster into account, we can see how it could bring Missouri into the competitive range.
That’s the real takeaway from these results. It’s unlikely that Biden is actually leading in Missouri but he could be approaching parity. And, with the trajectory things are on, that’s a recipe for eventually carrying the state. I think this is just one more date point that indicates that things are beginning to tilt heavily against Trump. Combined with a mid-June poll showing Biden down by two points in Arkansas and a recent Fox News poll showing him ahead by one point in Texas, we’re seeing a crumbling of the red wall in places where few people expected a competitive race.
News Source: alternet.org
Tags: religious right
Maddie Ziegler Stuns In New Instagram Photos
Former 'Dance Moms' star Maddie Ziegler took to Instagram to show off a new outfit.
Former Dance Moms star Maddie Ziegler took to Instagram on Saturday, July 5 to share a stunning double photo post. The 17-year-old dancer and actress looked gorgeous as she showed off a new outfit while promoting an athletic clothing brand.
Ziegler stood outside in the sun a white brick wall behind her. Beautiful green vines and pink flowers could be seen growing along the wall. The dancer sported a light pink sports bra that showed off her toned figure and flat stomach. The sports bra was composed of a mesh material that crisscrossed in the back. She paired the sports bra with a pair of black high waisted leggings.
Ziegler wore her long blond hair tied back in a clip behind her head. A few loose strands framed either side of her face. The teen accessorized with gold hoop earrings and appeared to be wearing some minimal makeup, including mascara and lipstick.
In the first photo, Ziegler held her arms behind her back as she turned to look at the camera, a serious expression upon her face. In the second photo, she lifted her head as she looked out into the distance, resting one hand against the brick wall.
The post was made in promotion of the athletic ware brand, Fabletics, which was co-founded by Kate Hudson. The brand prides itself in its clothing which is perfect for an active lifestyle while still being fashionable. Ziegler is an ambassador of the clothing brand and often promotes their clothes through social media.View this post on Instagram
????@fabletics #fableticsambassador #sponsored
A post shared by maddie ???? (@maddieziegler) on Jul 5, 2020 at 9:04am PDT
Ziegler’s post got a lot of attention online, racking up over 600,000 likes in only a few hours. She has quite a large following online, with 13.7 million followers just on Instagram alone. Her many followers took to the comments section of the post to compliment her on the photo and to share their admiration for the young dancer.
“I love fabletics! You look gorgeous Maddie, this is a great look!” one social media user wrote.
“You have grown into such a beautiful young lady, so proud of you. Can’t wait to see you continue to find success!” another fan wrote.
Aside from Dance Moms, Maddie is also known for her appearances in multiple music videos for Sia. Sia recently opened up about being protective of Maddie when she was younger, and stepping in when Harvey Weinstein tried to get her to go on a plane with him.
“I kept her off a plane that Harvey Weinstein tried to get her on, yeah so, I know that there’s times where my insight has really made a difference, like has kept her safe,” she said.